पॉवेल क्यों नहीं काट रहे?

दरों का महासंग्राम: ट्रम्प vs. फेड

जून 2025 में, डॉनल्ड ट्रम्प सिर्फ सलाह नहीं, प्रचार के साथ प्रयत्न किए। सच्‍चा सोशल मीडिया (ट्रुथ सोशल) पर, ‘बहुत देर’ (Too Late) -एक हस्‍तक्षेप-नाम -उनके पदचिह्‍न में -200-300bps कटौती माँगने।

यह सिर्फ 政治戏剧 है? Nahi. Yeh short-term optics aur long-term economic physics ke beech ek sanyukt ha.

हम ‘अभी’ Cuts Kyo Chahate Hain?

मुझे data-driven policy par respect hai—lekin political incentives bhi samajhata hoon.

ट्रम्प rate cuts chahte hain tayyar karne ke liye:

• Tariff ka prabhav kam karna: Apni trade policies ne import cost badha diya. Kam interest rates se inflationary pressure kam ho sakta hai.
• Kurukshetra ke liye koshish: US interest spending ne sirf aadhe saal mein \(776 billion tak pahuncha—1990s ke baad sabse zyada. Woh kahe hain ki 2% rate cut se \)80 billion saalana bachat hogi—lekin economists warn karte hain ki yeh backfire ho sakta hai.
• Stocks ko badhane aur re-election momentum banane ke liye: Kam rate environment asset prices ko boost karta hai. Aur jab markets badhte hain, voters notice kartey hain—even if they don’t understand why.

Yeh irrational nahi hai—it’s strategic. Lekin wise hai?

पॉवेल ‘अभी’ Kyo Nahin Halkte?

Maine central banks ko tino cycles me dekha—Bitcoin crash se lekar pandemic liquidity floods tak. Aur bata deta hoon: Powell data ke saath khel raha nahi hai.

GDP Q1 2025 me 0.3% contract hone par bhi unemployment tight 4.5% pe hai. Hourly wages abhi bhi +4%+ per year rise kar rahe hain. Consumer spending aur business investment +1.5% to +2% pe chal rahe hain.

Yeh recession nahi—’slow-cooking’ resilience hai.

पॉवेल ne sabse acchi tarah kaha: “हमने 劳动力 market me thoda thandaai dekha… lekin action ke liye kaafi nahi.”

Unka asli chinta? Data reliability under uncertainty—and whether easing too early could reignite inflation risks once global supply chains stabilize again.

Yeh stubbornness nahi—prudence disguised as delay hai.

Market Consensus: September ya December?

even among Fed watchers, there’s divergence—but consensus is forming:

• Citi moved expectations from July → September.
• Jamie Cox (Harris Financial) predicts July restarts cuts if employment trends weaken further. The market now prices two rate cuts by year-end—at least one in September and another in December—with no major shifts before then. The point isn’t if they’ll cut—but when, based on hard evidence—not tweets or outrage logs.