পাওয়েল কেন হারাতে চাইছেন?

#ফেড vs.ট্রাম্প:মহা-হস্তক্ষেপ

জুন 2025-এ, Donald Trump Federal Reserve-এর Chair Jerome Powell-কে ‘Too Late先生’ (ভয়াবহভাবে) 17বार call करे गेलन। Truth Social-এ अपनी सोशल मीडिया प्लेटफॉर्म पर तुरंत 200–300 basis point cut मांगलन।

किन्तु क्या आप जानते हैं? इसके पीछे सिर्फ़ राजनीति नहीं—बल्कि long-term economic physics का संघर्ष है।

केनोट्रम्‍प को कट मिलতे है?

1. ট্যারিফগুলির ‘অপশন’: Own trade policy import cost increase koreche। Rate cut inflationary pressure kam kore deite pare।
2. **ঘোষণা: US debt servicing \(776 billion in just eight months—record since the 1990s। A drop of 2% saves \)80 billion/year—but economists warn it might backfire.
3. **মধ্যযুগ: Stock market rise → voter attention → re-election momentum。

Not irrational—it’s strategic。But is it wise?

why powell won’t budge (yet)

I’ve watched central banks through three cycles—from Bitcoin crashes to pandemic liquidity floods—and let me tell you: Powell isn’t playing games with data.

Despite GDP contracting by 0.3% in Q1 2025, unemployment remains at a tight 4.5%. Hourly wages are still rising at over 4%. Consumer spending and business investment persist around +1.5% to +2% growth.

That’s not recession terrain—it’s ‘slow-cooking’ resilience.

Powell said it best: “We see some cooling in labor markets… but not enough to justify action.”

His real concern? Data reliability under uncertainty—and whether easing too early could reignite inflation risks once global supply chains stabilize again.

This isn’t stubbornness—it’s prudence disguised as delay.

The Market Consensus: September or December?

Even among Fed watchers, there’s divergence—but consensus is forming:

• Citi moved expectations from July → September.
• Jamie Cox (Harris Financial) predicts July restarts cuts if employment trends weaken further.
• The market now prices two rate cuts by year-end—at least one in September and another in December—with no major shifts before then.

The point isn’t if they’ll cut—but when, based on hard evidence—not tweets or outrage logs.